Demographic Transition Model
How population changes as countries develop through 5 stages
What is the DTM?
The Demographic Transition Model shows how population changes as a country develops. It tracks birth rate, death rate, and total population across 5 stages - from pre-industrial societies to highly developed nations with aging populations.
Click each stage to explore birth/death rates, reasons, and examples
Stage 2: Early Expanding
Development level: LICs
38
Birth Rate (per 1000)
20
Death Rate (per 1000)
Very rapid
Population Growth
Why Birth Rate is High
- •Cultural norms unchanged
- •Contraception still limited
- •Children still economic asset
- •High infant mortality legacy
Why Death Rate is Low/Falling
- •Improved healthcare (vaccinations)
- •Better nutrition and food security
- •Cleaner water access
- •Reduced infant mortality
Examples: Afghanistan, Chad, Niger
Grade 8/9 Key Point: FASTEST population growth occurs here - gap between high birth rate and falling death rate
Death rate falling (healthcare improves) but birth rate still high (cultural change lags) → rapid population growth
Birth rate falling (education, contraception, urbanisation) → slower growth
Both rates low → stable or declining population
Key Insight: Countries move through stages AS THEY DEVELOP
Economic growth → better healthcare → lower death rate → then cultural change → lower birth rate
See how population structure changes at each DTM stage
Stage 2: Early Expanding
Shape: very wide pyramid
Very wide base (population explosion), high dependency ratio, many children
Given birth and death rates, identify which DTM stage
Country A
42
Birth Rate (per 1000)
38
Death Rate (per 1000)
Very high birth and death rates, stable population
Which DTM stage is this country in?
See how the UK moved through DTM stages from 1750 to today
UK DTM Progression: 1750-2020
16
Birth Rate
12
Death Rate
50M
Population
Adjust healthcare, contraception, and education to see effects on DTM stage
Affects death rate (better healthcare = lower death rate)
Affects birth rate (more access = lower birth rate)
Affects birth rate (more education = delayed childbearing, fewer children)
35
Birth Rate
33
Death Rate
+2
Natural Change
5
DTM Stage
Declining
Slow population growth
DTM Limitations (essential for top marks):
- •Eurocentric model: Based on European historical experience - may not apply to all countries
- •Policy interventions: China skipped stages due to One Child Policy - external factors can disrupt natural progression
- •Stalling: Some LICs stalling in Stage 2 due to poverty, conflict, or disease (e.g., HIV/AIDS impact)
- •Migration ignored: Model only considers natural change (births/deaths), not international migration
- •Stage 5 debated: Not all geographers accept Stage 5 - some see it as temporary blip before stabilisation